Recent updates of USM articles state "Once downgraded to Viewer (or Guest), they can only be upgraded to Member manually by a System Admin." They also mention if a user is removed/access revoked, they can be re-shared using the same email.
We have a policy that ALL external provisional members are downgraded to Guests at the end of their provisional period (because there is no way for use to chargeback this cost to external users). Also, external user accounts are removed/access revoked if inactive >90 days to mitigate security risks (you don't want external users to always have access to your data whenever they want to access it). I know users can only experience provisional status once, but If an external user is reshared an asset later will they be forced to be a Member?
(for example we work with a client, the project is done so they are removed/access revoked. We collaborate with the same client, same stakeholders and project team again so they are shared the new assets for the new project.)