Conditional formatting not working with certain portion of a formula

Hello all. I have a date column that is populated via a formula, referencing other cells within the same sheet (both date and drop downs). Before I changed this column to populate via a formula, I had simple conditional formatting based on if date was in the past (red) or in the future (green). Since I added the formula, now some dates in the future are RED.

Those that are now incorrectly red are specifically those with Agreement Type "MSA" and have the Expiration Date column as 12/31/21. This date is set with Date(21,12, 31) in my formula, so my understanding is that this would create a date type, not a text.

Below are some screenshots of my CF, sheet and formula. Ideas?

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